NorthWest Research Associates

Penny M. Rowe (University of Idaho, Department of Geography)

Cloud feedbacks are among the largest sources of uncertainty in climate models. Cloud feedbacks are complicated because they involve both a cooling effect, through reflecting solar radiation back to space, and a greenhouse warming effect, through trapping infrared radiation. In addition, the magnitude of these effects depends on cloud properties, including cloud height, phase (liquid, ice, or mixed phase), and droplet or crystal size. Supercooled liquid clouds, in particular, exist in polar regions and in mid-level clouds globally and are an important component of the climate system. However, global climate models under-predict the amount of supercooled liquid clouds. To better understand cloud feedback processes in the climate system, it is essential to collect accurate measurements of supercooled cloud properties and to improve our understanding of how such clouds interact with infrared radiation at microphysical and macrophysical levels.
Supercooled liquid water was observed at the South Pole at temperatures well below freezing (–320C). At the same time, a highly spectrally resolved measurement of the downwelling infrared radiance from the cloud was made. Despite the cloud being well-characterized, significant discrepancies were evident between measured and simulated infrared radiances that could not be resolved by adjusting conventional microphysical parameters. The reason for the discrepancies was a mystery.
In this talk, we will discover that the supercooled liquid cloud mystery involves erroneous assumptions about the radiative properties of liquid clouds, and that these assumptions result in underestimation of the local greenhouse effect and errors in cloud property retrievals. Implications for other atmospheric and geographical conditions will be discussed. Following this will be a brief overview of other research and research goals, including cloud property and trace gas retrievals in the polar regions.

Wayne Evans (NorthWest Research Associates)

The Climate Change Convention is in danger from large unreported gas field leaks. Upstream fugitive emissions are reported in the total greenhouse gas emissions of each country, but direct leaks are not accounted for even though they are required to be. Recent atmospheric measurements with in situ instruments by NOAA GMD scientists in Colorado and Utah indicate that there are major gas leaks in most gas fields. Fracking plays an important role but there is also evidence for leaks from conventional wells. The leak rates could be certified by monitoring gas well with air borne instruments which have the capability to image methane plumes. The data can be accurately processed into flux rates of leakage and then ratioed to the well production of natural gas. Currently only about 1.5 is reported in the USA by the EPA and 2 is reported by Environment Canada to the UNCCC database. These new leakage rates are so high that no gas producing country could possibly meet the UNCCC 1990 level target emission goals at the present time. Canada, the USA and Russia are far over the Kyoto goals. Several possible methods to implement the use of clean gas are proposed. A company could be setup to measure and certify the wells to be leak free. The gas industry could police themselves and only sell green gas. Distribution companies would buy only certified gas for distribution to customers (”green gas”). Alternately, Federal governments could monitor the leaks and license well producers. Federal governments could also tax “non- green gas” to enforce this protocol. Non-green gas producers could buy GHG trading credits at market value to reduce their upstream emissions to 1.5%. We can replace coal with natural gas if gas production and delivery leaks are eliminated. On the other hand, this may not be possible since the source of the leaks is unknown and may even be in the boreholes. Can we save the UNFCCC?