SWPC Forecast Discussion

This message is a product of the NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center(SWPC)

:Product: Forecast Discussion
:Issued: 2024 May 12 1230 UTC
# Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
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Solar Activity
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.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity was at moderate levels. Region 3664 (S18W67,
Fkc/beta-gamma-delta) produced an M8.8/2b flare (R2/moderate) at 11/1525
UTC, the strongest of the period. Associated with the flare was a W
oriented CME signature first observed in SOHO/LASCO C2 imagery
beginning at 11/1612 UTC. An Earth-directed component is not suspected
with the event. The region remained the most complex on the visible
disk. The other numbered active regions were either mostly stable or in
gradual decay.
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.Forecast...
Solar activity is expected to be at high levels over 12-14 May, with
M-class (R1-R2/Minor-Moderate) and X-class flares (R3/Strong) expected,
due primarily to the flare potential of Region 3664.
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Energetic Particle
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.24 hr Summary...
The greater than 10 MeV proton flux reached S1 (Minor) levels at 10/1335
UTC and S2 (Moderate) levels at 10/1745 UTC; a peak flux of 207 pfu was
observed at 10/1745 UTC. The greater than 100 MeV proton flux decreased
below the 1 pfu alert threshold at 12/0025 UTC. The greater than 2 MeV
electron flux was at normal to moderate levels throughout the day.
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.Forecast...
The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to transition below S1
(Minor) storm levels on 12 May. Additional proton enhancements are
likely on 13-14 May due to the flare potential and location of Region
3664. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at normal
to moderate levels over 12-13 May, and is likely to increase to high
levels on 14 May following a prolonged period of elevated geomagnetic
activity and enhanced solar wind conditions.
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Solar Wind
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.24 hr Summary...
The solar wind environment was strongly enhanced this period due to
continued CME activity. Solar wind speeds reached a peak of around 1005
km/s at 12/0055 UTC. A gradual decline to the low 800s was interrupted
by an abrupt increase to above 900 km/s after 12/0858 UTC, which
suggested the arrival of another CME. Total magnetic field declined from
a peak of 28 nT early in the reporting period to a low of 5 nT. An
abrupt increase to 11 nT was observed at 12/0858 UTC. The Bz component
maintained a northward orientation through after 12/0230 UTC.
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.Forecast...
A strongly enhanced solar wind environment and continued CME influences
are expected to continue on 12-13 May, and begin to wane by 14 May as
CME influences subside. Some CH HSS influences are likely over 13-14
May, though CME influences are expected to be the primary driver of
geomagnetic activity.
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Geospace
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.24 hr Summary...
The geomagnetic field reached G4 (Severe) geomagnetic storm levels in
the past 24 hours due to continued CME activity.
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.Forecast...
Periods of G3 (Strong) geomagnetic storms are likely, with isolated G4
(Severe) levels possible, on 12 May due to continued CME passages from
eruptive events originating from Region 3664 continues. Periods of G1-G3
(Minor-Strong) storming are likely on 13 Apr due to continued CME
activity and positive polarity CH HSS influences. Periods of G1 (Minor)
storms are likely on 14 May due to waning CME influences and CH HSS
influences.
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:NWRA: File downloaded/formatted: Sun May 12 12:41:20 UTC 2024