Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

This message is a joint product of the NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center(SWPC) and the USAF Weather Agency Space Weather Operation Center (AFWA/XOGX, located at Offutt AFB, NE)

:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2010 Mar 10 2201 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 069 Issued at 2200Z on 10 Mar 2010
=======================================================================
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  09/2100Z
to 10/2100Z:  Solar activity was very low. Two B-class flares
occurred during the past 24 hours. The first was estimated to be a
B3 at 0713Z from spotless plage (in the location of old Region 1046.
The x-ray flux maximum was estimated because it occurred during
GOES-14 eclipse). This event was associated with a CME from the East
limb. The second event was a B1.7 at 1534 UTC that originated from
newly emerged Region 1054 (N12E56), which is currently a small BXO
beta sunspot group. There also appeared to be emerging flux and
possible spot formation near S23W00 but observations are too
preliminary to warrant a Region number assignment.
=======================================================================
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be very
low for the next three days (11-13 March). However, there is a
slight chance for an isolated C-class event from the newly emerging
regions if they continue to grow.
=======================================================================
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 09/2100Z to 10/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled during the past 24
hours.
=======================================================================
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet for the next three days (11-13 March).
=======================================================================
III.  Event Probabilities 11 Mar-13 Mar
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green
=======================================================================
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           10 Mar 080
Predicted   11 Mar-13 Mar  082/082/082
90 Day Mean        10 Mar 082
=======================================================================
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 09 Mar  002/002
Estimated Afr/Ap 10 Mar  007/007
Predicted Afr/Ap 11 Mar-13 Mar  005/005-005/005-005/005
=======================================================================
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 11 Mar-13 Mar
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                05/05/05
Minor storm           01/01/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                05/05/10
Minor storm           01/01/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
:NWRA: File downloaded: Wed Mar 10 22:35:02 UTC 2010

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