This message is a joint product of the NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center(SWPC) and the USAF Weather Agency Space Weather Operation Center (AFWA/XOGX, located at Offutt AFB, NE)
:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity :Issued: 2013 Dec 10 2200 UTC # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force. # Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 344 Issued at 2200Z on 10 Dec 2013 ======================================================================= IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 09/2100Z to 10/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C2 event observed at 10/2007Z from Region 1916 (S13W65). There are currently 9 numbered sunspot regions on the disk. ======================================================================= IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (11 Dec, 12 Dec, 13 Dec). ======================================================================= IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 09/2100Z to 10/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 430 km/s at 09/2326Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at 10/0539Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at 10/0507Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 109 pfu. ======================================================================= IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on days one and two (11 Dec, 12 Dec) and quiet to active levels on day three (13 Dec). ======================================================================= III. Event probabilities 11 Dec-13 Dec Class M 30/30/30 Class X 01/01/01 Proton 01/01/01 PCAF green ======================================================================= IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 10 Dec 175 Predicted 11 Dec-13 Dec 175/180/175 90 Day Mean 10 Dec 134 ======================================================================= V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 09 Dec 002/002 Estimated Afr/Ap 10 Dec 006/006 Predicted Afr/Ap 11 Dec-13 Dec 005/005-005/005-009/010 ======================================================================= VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 11 Dec-13 Dec A. Middle Latitudes Active 05/05/30 Minor Storm 01/01/10 Major-severe storm 01/01/01 B. High Latitudes Active 15/15/10 Minor Storm 15/15/25 Major-severe storm 05/05/40 :NWRA: File downloaded: Tue Dec 10 22:35:03 UTC 2013Updated daily at approx. 2235 UTC
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