Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

This message is a joint product of the NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center(SWPC) and the USAF Weather Agency Space Weather Operation Center (AFWA/XOGX, located at Offutt AFB, NE)

:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2010 Feb 08 2211 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
:::::::::: CORRECTED COPY ::::::::::
SDF Number 039 Issued at 2200Z on 08 Feb 2010
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IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  07/2100Z
to 08/2100Z:  Solar activity was moderate.  Region 1045 (N23W17)
produced three M-class events in the last 24 hours.  STEREO and
SOHO/LASCO imagery observed CME activity with each of the three
events.  The largest event was a M4 at 08/0743Z with an associated
Tenflare of 150 sfu.  This region has continued to grow in both
white light area coverage and sunspot count and is a magnetic
beta-gamma-delta configuration.  There were two additional Tenflares
observed during the period (both associated with Region 1045
events), a C7/Sf at 08/0415Z with a 100 sfu Tenflare, and a C8/1f at
08/0523Z with a 100 sfu Tenflare.  A new region was numbered today
as Region 1047 (S15E70).
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IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be
moderate with M-class flares likely.  There is a slight chance for a
X-class event from Region 1045.
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IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 07/2100Z to 08/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet.  One unsettled period at
mid-latitudes was reported at 08/1600Z.
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IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be predominantly unsettled with isolated active
conditions for the next three days (09-11 February).  These
conditions are forecast due to the recent CME activity.
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III.  Event Probabilities 09 Feb-11 Feb
Class M    70/70/70
Class X    15/15/15
Proton     05/05/05
PCAF       green
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IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           08 Feb 094
Predicted   09 Feb-11 Feb  096/096/094
90 Day Mean        08 Feb 078
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V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 07 Feb  002/003
Estimated Afr/Ap 08 Feb  003/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 09 Feb-11 Feb  008/008-008/009-010/010
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VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 09 Feb-11 Feb
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                25/25/25
Minor storm           05/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                30/30/35
Minor storm           05/05/10
Major-severe storm    02/01/05
:NWRA: File downloaded: Mon Feb 8 22:35:03 UTC 2010

Updated daily at approx. 2230 UTC

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