Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

This message is a joint product of the NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center(SWPC) and the USAF Space Weather Flight.

:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2024 May 12 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 133 Issued at 2200Z on 12 May 2024

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IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 11/2100Z to
12/2100Z: Solar activity has been at high levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a X1 event observed at
12/1626Z from Region 3664 (S19W75). There are currently 12 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
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IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be high on
days one and two (13 May, 14 May) and expected to be low with a slight
chance for an M-class flare on day three (15 May).

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IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 11/2100Z to 12/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at unsettled to severe storm levels for the past 24
hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 1005 km/s at 12/0055Z. Total
IMF reached 15 nT at 11/2116Z. The maximum southward component of Bz
reached -7 nT at 11/2158Z.  Protons greater than 10 MeV at
geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 71 pfu at 11/2100Z.
Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak
level of 289 pfu.
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IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at unsettled to severe storm levels on day one (13 May), quiet to
minor storm levels on day two (14 May) and quiet to active levels on day
three (15 May). Protons greater than 10 Mev are likely to cross
threshold on days one and two (13 May, 14 May).

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III.  Event probabilities 13 May-15 May
Class M    95/95/15
Class X    75/75/05
Proton     60/60/05
PCAF       green

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IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           12 May 222
Predicted   13 May-15 May 220/215/200
90 Day Mean        12 May 165

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V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 11 May  175/ NA
Estimated Afr/Ap 12 May  032/063
Predicted Afr/Ap 13 May-15 May  023/040-014/018-010/012

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VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 13 May-15 May
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                15/35/35
Minor Storm           35/30/20
Major-severe storm    50/15/05
B.  High Latitudes
Active                01/05/10
Minor Storm           10/20/30
Major-severe storm    90/70/50
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:NWRA: File downloaded/formatted: Sun May 12 22:41:22 UTC 2024